提高美國(guó)制造業(yè)成本，影響美國(guó)就業(yè)。彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所發(fā)布報(bào)告指出，95%被加征關(guān)稅的中國(guó)商品是零配件與電子組件，它們被組裝在“美國(guó)制造”的最終產(chǎn)品中，提高相關(guān)產(chǎn)品關(guān)稅將損害美國(guó)企業(yè)自身?！都~約時(shí)報(bào)》稱，中國(guó)生產(chǎn)的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)及其他零部件對(duì)美造船企業(yè)至關(guān)重要，暫時(shí)無(wú)法找到替代品，造船企業(yè)利潤(rùn)空間基本不可能消化25%的關(guān)稅成本，提高自身產(chǎn)品價(jià)格將失去市場(chǎng)份額。通用電氣公司預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)對(duì)自中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品加征關(guān)稅將導(dǎo)致其成本上升3億-4億美元。通用汽車、福特及菲亞特-克萊斯勒等汽車制造商紛紛下調(diào)了全年利潤(rùn)預(yù)測(cè)。美國(guó)最大的鐵釘制造商中洲公司表示，對(duì)進(jìn)口鋼鐵加征關(guān)稅致使其成本提升，產(chǎn)品價(jià)格被迫上漲，銷售額預(yù)計(jì)將下降50%，公司經(jīng)營(yíng)面臨較大沖擊。今年6月，該公司已解雇了500名工人中的60名，并計(jì)劃再解雇200名工人。中洲公司的困境還擴(kuò)散到其下游的包裝環(huán)節(jié)——與其合作的SEMO包裝公司，由于業(yè)務(wù)縮減，已經(jīng)開始裁員。彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所的評(píng)估指出，美國(guó)對(duì)進(jìn)口汽車加征關(guān)稅將導(dǎo)致美國(guó)減少19.5萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位，若受到其他國(guó)家報(bào)復(fù)性措施，就業(yè)崗位可能減少62.4萬(wàn)個(gè)。
It will push up manufacturing costs and affect American jobs. A PIIE report contends that since 95 percent of the Chinese products hit by higher tariffs are parts and electronic components used in end products made in the US, raising tariffs on these Chinese products will only damage US businesses. According to the New York Times, electric motors and other components from China are vital to the US boating industry, and it is not easy for importers to find substitutes. Their profit margins are too thin to absorb the cost of 25 percent tariffs, and raising prices would cost them market share. General Electric estimates that new tariffs on imports from China could raise its overall costs by US$300-400 million. General Motors, Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles have lowered their full-year profit forecasts due to escalating tariffs. Mid-Continent, the largest nail manufacturer in the US, said its sales would plummet by 50 percent after it raised prices to cope with its elevated steel costs, and that it laid off 60 of its 500 workers in June and planned to downsize by another 200. Mid-Continent’s problems have already spread downstream. For example, Semo Packaging has started to shed its workforce as a result of fewer orders from Mid-Continent and similar customers. PIIE also projected that raising tariffs on imported automobiles would cause 195,000 US workers to lose their jobs. If other countries retaliate in kind, 624,000 US jobs would be lost.
導(dǎo)致美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)上升，消費(fèi)者福利受損。美國(guó)自中國(guó)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品中，消費(fèi)品一直占很高比重。根據(jù)美國(guó)商務(wù)部經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局統(tǒng)計(jì)，2017年消費(fèi)品（不包括食品和汽車）占中國(guó)對(duì)美出口的比重為46.6%。長(zhǎng)期進(jìn)口中國(guó)物美價(jià)廉的消費(fèi)品是美國(guó)通脹率保持低位的重要因素之一。美國(guó)設(shè)備制造商協(xié)會(huì)在敦促美國(guó)政府不要實(shí)施損害經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)稅措施時(shí)指出，關(guān)稅是對(duì)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的稅收。美國(guó)國(guó)家納稅人聯(lián)盟在2018年5月3日寫給國(guó)會(huì)與總統(tǒng)的公開信中警告稱，保護(hù)性關(guān)稅將導(dǎo)致美國(guó)消費(fèi)品價(jià)格上漲，傷害多數(shù)美國(guó)公民利益。美國(guó)汽車制造商聯(lián)盟在6月提交給政府的一份文件稱，其對(duì)2017年汽車銷售數(shù)據(jù)的分析顯示，對(duì)進(jìn)口汽車征收25%的關(guān)稅將導(dǎo)致平均價(jià)格上漲5800美元，這將使美國(guó)消費(fèi)者每年的消費(fèi)成本增加近450億美元。
It will drive up prices in the US and harm consumers. Consumer goods account for a considerable share in the US imports from China. The figure (excluding food and automobiles) stood at 46.6 percent in 2017, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce. For many years, the import of inexpensive yet quality products from China has been key to low inflation in the US. The US Association of Equipment Manufacturers has urged the administration not to levy economy-damaging tariffs, as they will only boomerang and increase the tax burden on US consumers. The US National Taxpayers Union warned in an open letter to Congress and President Trump on May 3, 2018 that higher protective duties would increase the prices which domestic consumers would have to pay and few people could hope to gain from such a change. The US Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers concluded in a June report to the government that based on its analysis of 2017 automobile sales figures, a 25 percent tariff on imported automobiles would drive up the average price by US$5,800, thus increasing the cost for US consumers by nearly US$45 billion every year.
引發(fā)貿(mào)易伙伴反制措施，反過(guò)來(lái)?yè)p害美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。美國(guó)政府向包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的很多重要貿(mào)易伙伴發(fā)動(dòng)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，已引發(fā)各貿(mào)易伙伴的反制措施，勢(shì)必使美國(guó)一些地區(qū)、產(chǎn)業(yè)、企業(yè)承擔(dān)大量損失。截至2018年7月底，包括中國(guó)、加拿大、墨西哥、俄羅斯、歐盟、土耳其在內(nèi)的美國(guó)主要貿(mào)易伙伴均已宣布對(duì)其貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義措施實(shí)施反制，并相繼通過(guò)世界貿(mào)易組織提起訴訟。例如，加拿大政府6月29日宣布，將從7月1日起，對(duì)價(jià)值約126億美元從美國(guó)進(jìn)口的商品加征關(guān)稅。7月6日，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)部宣布將對(duì)部分美國(guó)商品加征25%-40%的關(guān)稅。歐盟針對(duì)美國(guó)鋼鋁關(guān)稅采取反制措施，將美國(guó)進(jìn)口摩托車關(guān)稅從6%提高至31%。
It triggers countermeasures from trading partners and will in turn hurt the US economy. The trade war waged by the US administration against China and many other important trading partners has led to countermeasures, and will cause huge losses to some regions, industries and firms in the US. As of the end of July 2018, major US trading partners including China, Canada, Mexico, Russia, the EU and Turkey had all announced countermeasures against US trade protectionism, and had filed lawsuits at the WTO. For example, the Canadian government announced on June 29 a tariff increase on US$12.6 billion of US goods, effective from July 1. The Russian Economy Ministry announced a 25 percent to 40 percent tariff hike on some US products on July 6. As a countermeasure to American duties on European steel and aluminum, the EU raised tariffs on US-made motorcycles from 6 percent to 31 percent.
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