世界銀行2018年6月5日發(fā)布的《全球經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》報告指出，全球關(guān)稅廣泛上升將會給全球貿(mào)易帶來重大負(fù)面影響，至2020年全球貿(mào)易額下降可達(dá)9%，對新興市場和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的影響尤為明顯，特別是那些與美國貿(mào)易或金融市場關(guān)聯(lián)度較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)體（圖14）。世界貿(mào)易組織總干事羅伯特·阿澤維多表示，若關(guān)稅回到關(guān)稅總協(xié)定/世界貿(mào)易組織之前的水平，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將立即收縮2.5%，全球貿(mào)易量削減60%以上，影響將超過2008年國際金融危機。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)對所有人都有害，特別是窮人將損失63%的購買力。歷史教訓(xùn)一再表明，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)沒有贏家，甚至?xí)o世界和平和發(fā)展帶來嚴(yán)重影響（專欄8）。
圖表：圖14：全球關(guān)稅升至世界貿(mào)易組織規(guī)則允許的最高水平對貿(mào)易額的影響 新華社發(fā)
圖表：表6：美國挑起貿(mào)易摩擦對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響 新華社發(fā)
圖表：專欄8 美國1930年《斯姆特—霍利關(guān)稅法》的歷史教訓(xùn) 新華社發(fā)
According to “Global Economic Prospects” published by the World Bank on June 5, 2018, a broad-based increase in tariffs worldwide would have major adverse consequences, which could translate into a decline in global trade amounting to 9 percent by 2020. The impact would be more severe on emerging markets and developing economies, particularly on those with large trade or financial market linkages with the US (Chart 14). According to WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo, if tariffs return to the pre-GATT/WTO level, the global economy would contract by 2.5 percent instantly and more than 60 percent of global trade would disappear, creating an impact more serious than that of the 2008 global financial crisis. A trade war is detrimental to all, and particularly to the poor, who could lose 63 percent of their purchasing power. History has proven time and again that trade wars produce no winners and can severely affect world peace and development (Box 8).
Chart 14: Impact on Trade in the Case of Tariff Increase to Bound Levels
Source: “Global Economic Prospects”, World Bank
Table 6: Impact of Trade Frictions
Provoked by the United States on the Global Economy
Sources: WTO, IMF, Barclays Capital, Standard & Poor’s, Bank of England and Bank of France
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