?。ㄒ唬┎粦?yīng)僅看貨物貿(mào)易差額片面評判中美經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系得失

　　客觀認(rèn)識和評價(jià)中美雙邊貿(mào)易是否平衡，需要全面深入考察，不能只看貨物貿(mào)易差額。中國并不刻意追求貿(mào)易順差，事實(shí)上，中國經(jīng)常賬戶順差與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值之比已由2007年的11.3%降至2017年的1.3%。中美貨物貿(mào)易不平衡現(xiàn)象更多是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)和現(xiàn)有比較優(yōu)勢格局下市場自主選擇的自然結(jié)果，解決這一問題需要雙方共同努力進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整。美國無視影響中美經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的多方面因素，片面強(qiáng)調(diào)兩國貨物貿(mào)易不平衡現(xiàn)象，將責(zé)任歸咎于中國，是不公平、不合理的。

 1. The gap in trade in goods alone is not a good indicator of China-US trade and economic cooperation.

An objective understanding and assessment of China-US trade balance calls for comprehensive and in-depth study, rather than a glance at the trade deficit in goods. It is not China’s intention to have a trade surplus. Rather, the ratio of China’s current account surplus to its GDP has declined from 11.3% in 2007 to 1.3% in 2017. The imbalance of trade in goods between China and the US is more of a natural outcome of voluntary choices the US has made in economic structure and market in the light of its comparative strengths. To resolve this issue, both sides need to make concerted efforts in restructuring. The United States turns a blind eye to various factors in its trade and economic cooperation with China, singles out the imbalance of trade in goods, and blames China for the imbalance, which is unfair and unreasonable.

　　中美經(jīng)貿(mào)往來獲益大致平衡。中美雙邊貨物貿(mào)易不平衡現(xiàn)象有一個(gè)歷史演變過程。在上世紀(jì)80年代至90年代初期美國一直處于順差地位，1992年之后中國轉(zhuǎn)為順差并持續(xù)增加。

　　在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化深入發(fā)展、國際化生產(chǎn)普遍存在的今天，雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系內(nèi)涵早已超出貨物貿(mào)易，服務(wù)貿(mào)易和本國企業(yè)在對方國家分支機(jī)構(gòu)的本地銷售額（即雙向投資中的本地銷售）也應(yīng)考慮進(jìn)來。綜合考慮貨物貿(mào)易、服務(wù)貿(mào)易和本國企業(yè)在對方國家分支機(jī)構(gòu)的本地銷售額三項(xiàng)因素，中美雙方經(jīng)貿(mào)往來獲益大致平衡，而且美方凈收益占優(yōu)（圖4）。根據(jù)中國商務(wù)部統(tǒng)計(jì)，2017年美國對華服務(wù)貿(mào)易順差為541億美元，美國在服務(wù)貿(mào)易方面占有顯著優(yōu)勢。根據(jù)美國商務(wù)部經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，2015年美資企業(yè)在華銷售額高達(dá)4814億美元，遠(yuǎn)高于中資企業(yè)在美256億美元的銷售額，美國占有4558億美元的優(yōu)勢，美國企業(yè)跨國經(jīng)營優(yōu)勢更為突出。2018年6月德意志銀行發(fā)布的研究報(bào)告《估算美國和主要貿(mào)易伙伴之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益》認(rèn)為，從商業(yè)利益角度分析，考慮到跨國公司的全球經(jīng)營對雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)交往的影響，美國實(shí)際上在中美雙邊貿(mào)易交往過程中獲得了比中國更多的商業(yè)凈利益。根據(jù)其計(jì)算，扣除各自出口中其他國家企業(yè)子公司的貢獻(xiàn)等，2017年美國享有203億美元的凈利益。

China-US trade and economic cooperation delivers balanced benefits in general. The imbalance of trade in goods between the two countries has evolved over time. From the 1980s to early 1990s, the US ran a surplus in its trade with China; in 1992 China began to run surplus, which has continued to grow.

In today’s world of greater globalization and widespread international production, bilateral trade and economic cooperation already extend beyond trade in goods. Trade in services and sales of local subsidiaries in the host country (local sales in two-way investment) should also be included. If we give full consideration to these three factors—trade in goods, trade in services and sales of local subsidiaries in the host country, trade and economic cooperation delivers balanced benefits in general for China and the United States, with the latter reaping more net benefits. (See Chart 4)According to MOFCOM, the US ran a surplus of US$54.1 billion in trade in services in 2017, indicating its remarkable competitive strength in this area. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the sales of US companies in China reached US$481.4 billion in 2015, way higher than the US$25.6 billion sales of Chinese companies in the US, an advantage of US$455.8 billion. US companies enjoy an even bigger advantage in cross-border operations. In June 2018, Deutsche Bank released a report on calculating economic interests between the US and its major trading partners, arguing that, from the perspective of commercial interests, the US has in fact gained more commercial net benefits than China from their two-way trade, given the impact of global operations by multinational corporations on bilateral trade and economic cooperation. According to Deutsche Bank, after contributions from subsidiaries of third countries are taken away, the US enjoyed net benefits of US$20.3 billion in 2017. 

Chart 4: China-US Trade and Economic Cooperation Delivers Balanced Benefits in General (2009-2015, unit: US$1 billion)